Sexypöxyt II 2–0 PPJ: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Sexypöxyt II

2 – 0

PPJ

4/6/2024

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundLaaksolahden tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sexypöxyt II34%

×Draw19%

PPJ47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sexypöxyt IIExpected goals in this matchPPJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.63

Sexypöxyt II

2.25

PPJ

2.63

PPJ creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

3.33

creates per match

3.27

2.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sexypöxyt II

3.33

PPJ

3.27

allows per match

Sexypöxyt II

2.00

PPJ

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sexypöxyt II+0.00on par

PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sexypöxyt II ↓

PPJ →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–42%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Sexypöxyt II or draw

53%

Sexypöxyt II or PPJ

81%

Draw or PPJ

66%

Winning margin

Sexypöxyt II wins by 2+

19%

PPJ wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Sexypöxyt II 1+ goals

89%

Sexypöxyt II 2+ goals

65%

Sexypöxyt II 3+ goals

39%

PPJ 1+ goals

93%

PPJ 2+ goals

73%

PPJ 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Sexypöxyt II (draw refunded)

42%

PPJ (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sexypöxyt II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

PPJ away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sexypöxyt II attack 3.33 + PPJ defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.25

PPJ attack 3.27 + Sexypöxyt II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sexypöxyt II scores more

34%

level

19%

PPJ scores more

47%

PPJ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff