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Sevlievo vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
8/31/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 1Rakovski pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sevlievo55%
×Draw23%
Vihar Slavyanovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
1.78
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.04

Sevlievo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
78%
Sevlievo or Vihar Slavyanovo
77%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
45%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
31%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
83%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
53%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
26%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
65%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
28%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
71%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sevlievo scores more
55%
level
23%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
22%

Sevlievo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 0–0 Vihar Slavyanovo

Sevlievo and Vihar Slavyanovo drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Rakovski pomoshten teren in Sevlievo.