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Sevlievo vs Levski Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
0 – 2
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
12/2/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 14Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sevlievo39%
×Draw25%
Levski Lom36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
1.44
Levski Lom
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Levski Lom
2.00

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Levski Lom
0.47

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
64%
Sevlievo or Levski Lom
75%
Draw or Levski Lom
61%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
18%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
76%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
42%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
18%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
75%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
40%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
52%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sevlievo scores more
39%
level
25%
Levski Lom scores more
36%

Sevlievo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 0–2 Levski Lom

Levski Lom beat Sevlievo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on December 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sevlievo.