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Sevlievo vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
CANC
14:00
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
4/20/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 24Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sevlievo49%
×Draw24%
Dunav Lom28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
1.71
Dunav Lom
1.23

Sevlievo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
72%
Sevlievo or Dunav Lom
76%
Draw or Dunav Lom
51%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
26%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
82%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
51%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
24%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
71%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
35%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
64%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sevlievo scores more
49%
level
24%
Dunav Lom scores more
28%

Sevlievo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sevlievo host Dunav Lom

April 20, 2024: Sevlievo take on Dunav Lom in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sevlievo host Dunav Lom at Stadion Rakovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.