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Sevlievo vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
9/16/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 6Rakovski pomoshten teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sevlievo64%
×Draw20%
Botev Vratsa II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.12
Botev Vratsa II
0.95

Sevlievo creates 123% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
84%
Sevlievo or Botev Vratsa II
80%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
36%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
40%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
88%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
62%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
35%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
61%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
25%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
80%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.12

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sevlievo scores more
64%
level
20%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
16%

Sevlievo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevlievo vs Botev Vratsa II

Sevlievo beat Botev Vratsa II 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Rakovski pomoshten teren in Sevlievo.