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Sevlievo vs Botev Lukovit — Third League - Northwest 2018

Sevlievo
Sevlievo
FT
1 – 1
Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
8/19/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 2Stadion Rakovski (Sevlievo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sevlievo69%
×Draw19%
Botev Lukovit12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevlievo
2.17
Botev Lukovit
0.77

Sevlievo creates 182% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sevlievo
2.42
Botev Lukovit
0.80

allows per match

Sevlievo
0.74
Botev Lukovit
1.93

finishing

Sevlievo+0.00on par
Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevlievo ↓

Botev Lukovit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sevlievo or draw
88%
Sevlievo or Botev Lukovit
81%
Draw or Botev Lukovit
31%

Winning margin

Sevlievo wins by 2+
45%
Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sevlievo 1+ goals
89%
Sevlievo 2+ goals
64%
Sevlievo 3+ goals
36%
Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
54%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
18%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sevlievo (draw refunded)
85%
Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevlievo at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.74 · 95 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevlievo attack 2.42 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Sevlievo defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sevlievo scores more
69%
level
19%
Botev Lukovit scores more
12%

Sevlievo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sevlievo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Sevlievo 1–1 Botev Lukovit

Sevlievo and Botev Lukovit drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski (Sevlievo).