Sevilla W 6–0 Real Betis W: Result & Stats

Sevilla W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Betis W

Inma Gabarro 90+1', 80'

Cristina Martín-Prieto 82', 52'

Amanda Sampedro 21'

K. Cahynová 8'

11/25/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 10Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Sevilla W52%

×Draw23%

Real Betis W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.24

Sevilla W

1.85

Real Betis W

1.24

Sevilla W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

1.59

creates per match

1.03

1.45

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Sevilla W

1.59

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Sevilla W

1.45

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw

74%

Sevilla W or Real Betis W

77%

Draw or Real Betis W

48%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+

29%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals

84%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

55%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

28%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

71%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

35%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

67%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sevilla W scores more

52%

level

23%

Real Betis W scores more

26%

Sevilla W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Inma Gabarro

Sevilla W · F

10.0

Match Events

8'

K. Cahynová↳ Rosa Otermin

21'

Amanda Sampedro↳ T. Payne

38'

Esther Sullastres

38'

María Carrión Leles

52'

Cristina Martín-Prieto↳ Inma Gabarro

61'

Noelia Salazar← Leles

61'

T. Cameron← Carolina Férez

65'

Rosa Márquez

73'

Débora García← Lucía Rodríguez

74'

Gemma Gili← Amanda Sampedro

80'

Inma Gabarro↳ Débora García

81'

Arola Aparicio← T. Payne

81'

Pamela González← María Pérez

81'

María Jiménez← Natalia Montilla

82'

Cristina Martín-Prieto

84'

Nazareth Martín← Eva Llamas

85'

Noelia Salazar

90+1'

Inma Gabarro↳ Cristina Martín-Prieto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SevillaReal

Overview

52%Possession48%

27Total Shots8

6Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

27Total Shots8

16On Target1

9Off Target5

2Blocked2

18Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

420Total Passes389

333Accurate Passes288

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides4