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Sevilla W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Sevilla W
Sevilla W
Preview
16:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
2/14/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 20Estadio Jesus Navas
Big match
47%
Sevilla W
model favours
47%23%30%

Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sevilla W47%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla W
1.86
Madrid CFF W
1.44

Sevilla W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sevilla W
1.59
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Sevilla W
1.45
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw
70%
Sevilla W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
53%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+
26%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals
84%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
55%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
28%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
76%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
42%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)
61%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sevilla W scores more
47%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
30%

Sevilla W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sevilla W
Balanced
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
46%Possession55%
72%Pass accuracy77%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap13.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sevilla WMadrid CFF W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Sevilla W
3
Draws
4
Madrid CFF W
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 80%
0–21–32–11–23–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDLLL
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla W vs Madrid CFF W — Match Preview

Sevilla W face Madrid CFF W on February 14, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sevilla W host Madrid CFF W at Estadio Jesus Navas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.