Sevilla W 2–1 Madrid CFF W: Result & Stats

Sevilla W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Madrid CFF W

4/12/2025

Primera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Sevilla W47%

×Draw23%

Madrid CFF W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla WExpected goals in this matchMadrid CFF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.44

Sevilla W

1.86

Madrid CFF W

1.44

Sevilla W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

1.59

creates per match

1.44

1.45

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Sevilla W

1.59

Madrid CFF W

1.44

allows per match

Sevilla W

1.45

Madrid CFF W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla W+0.00on par

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla W ↓

Madrid CFF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sevilla W or draw

70%

Sevilla W or Madrid CFF W

77%

Draw or Madrid CFF W

53%

Winning margin

Sevilla W wins by 2+

26%

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sevilla W 1+ goals

84%

Sevilla W 2+ goals

55%

Sevilla W 3+ goals

28%

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

76%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

42%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sevilla W (draw refunded)

61%

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 119 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla W attack 1.59 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Sevilla W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sevilla W scores more

47%

level

23%

Madrid CFF W scores more

30%

Sevilla W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sevilla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff