Sevilla 2–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Sevilla

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mallorca

Isaac Romero 75'

Youssef En-Nesyri 61'

Abdón Prats 90+5'

4/22/2024

La Liga · Round 32Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Sevilla47%

×Draw26%

Mallorca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevillaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Sevilla

1.50

Mallorca

1.06

Sevilla creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

1.25

creates per match

0.94

1.19

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sevilla

1.25

Mallorca

0.94

allows per match

Sevilla

1.19

Mallorca

1.75

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sevilla-0.08on par

Mallorca-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sevilla or draw

73%

Sevilla or Mallorca

74%

Draw or Mallorca

53%

Winning margin

Sevilla wins by 2+

24%

Mallorca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sevilla 1+ goals

78%

Sevilla 2+ goals

44%

Sevilla 3+ goals

19%

Mallorca 1+ goals

65%

Mallorca 2+ goals

29%

Mallorca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sevilla (draw refunded)

64%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 46 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla attack 1.25 + Mallorca defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mallorca attack 0.94 + Sevilla defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sevilla scores more

47%

level

26%

Mallorca scores more

27%

Sevilla at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sevilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Nemanja Radonjić

Mallorca · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Samuel Costa

46'

Suso← Lucien Agoumé

60'

Cyle Larin← Nemanja Radonjić

61'

Youssef En-Nesyri↳ Suso

71'

Manu Morlanes← Omar Mascarell

71'

Sergi Darder← Dani Rodríguez

71'

Antonio Sánchez← Martin Valjent

73'

José Copete

75'

Isaac Romero↳ Youssef En-Nesyri

81'

Marcos Acuña← Nemanja Gudelj

81'

Dodi Lukebakio← Isaac Romero

83'

Abdón Prats← Vedat Muriqi

90+5'

Abdón Prats↳ Sergi Darder

90'

Juanlu Sánchez← Jesús Navas

90'

Erik Lamela← Youssef En-Nesyri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SevillaMallorca

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots8

1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.75

4Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target6

6Off Target0

1Blocked2

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

515Total Passes440

437Accurate Passes357

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5