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Sevilla vs Inter — UEFA Europa League 2026

Sevilla
Sevillaadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Inter
Inter
8/21/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · FinalRheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sevilla54%
×Draw24%
Inter22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla
1.76
Inter
1.04

Sevilla creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sevilla
2.53
Inter
1.67

allows per match

Sevilla
0.41
Inter
1.00

finishing

Sevilla+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sevilla or draw
78%
Sevilla or Inter
76%
Draw or Inter
46%

Winning margin

Sevilla wins by 2+
30%
Inter wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sevilla 1+ goals
83%
Sevilla 2+ goals
52%
Sevilla 3+ goals
26%
Inter 1+ goals
65%
Inter 2+ goals
28%
Inter 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sevilla (draw refunded)
71%
Inter (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Inter away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla attack 2.53 + Inter defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Inter attack 1.67 + Sevilla defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sevilla scores more
54%
level
24%
Inter scores more
22%

Sevilla at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sevilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Sevilla 3–2 Inter

Sevilla beat Inter 3-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 21, 2020.

The match was played at RheinEnergieStadion in Köln.