Sevilla 3–0 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats

Sevilla

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

F91 Dudelange

Munir 78'

F. Vázquez 75', 48'

10/24/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sevilla75%

×Draw15%

F91 Dudelange10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevillaExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.80

Sevilla

2.56

F91 Dudelange

0.80

Sevilla creates 220% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

2.53

creates per match

1.20

0.41

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Sevilla

2.53

F91 Dudelange

1.20

allows per match

Sevilla

0.41

F91 Dudelange

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sevilla or draw

90%

Sevilla or F91 Dudelange

85%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

25%

Winning margin

Sevilla wins by 2+

53%

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sevilla 1+ goals

92%

Sevilla 2+ goals

72%

Sevilla 3+ goals

46%

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

55%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

19%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sevilla (draw refunded)

89%

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla attack 2.53 + F91 Dudelange defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

F91 Dudelange attack 1.20 + Sevilla defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sevilla scores more

75%

level

15%

F91 Dudelange scores more

10%

Sevilla at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sevilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Vázquez

Sevilla · M

8.9

Match Events

25'

Thibaut Lesquoy

48'

F. Vázquez↳ Óliver Torres

52'

Munir← L. de Jong

60'

Bryan Gil← Rony Lopes

66'

Alejandro Pozo

70'

Diego Carlos← Sergi Gómez

75'

F. Vázquez

76'

R. Klapp← A. Bernier

78'

Munir↳ Escudero

79'

A. Bettaieb← D. Stolz

81'

O. Natami← S. Bougrine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SevillaF91

Overview

73%Possession27%

26Total Shots3

8Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

26Total Shots3

10On Target0

10Off Target3

6Blocked0

19Inside Box1

7Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

779Total Passes283

701Accurate Passes202

90%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1