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Sevilla III vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
9/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sevilla III36%
×Draw28%
Xerez Deportivo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.14
Xerez Deportivo
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
64%
Sevilla III or Xerez Deportivo
72%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
64%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
15%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
68%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
32%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
11%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
68%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
32%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
50%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sevilla III scores more
36%
level
28%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
36%

Sevilla III at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 1–0 Xerez Deportivo

Sevilla III beat Xerez Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.