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Sevilla III vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Utrera
Utrera
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Campo Prado de San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Sevilla III38%
×Draw28%
Utrera34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.23
Utrera
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Utrera
1.32

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Utrera
1.23

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Utrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
66%
Sevilla III or Utrera
72%
Draw or Utrera
62%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
17%
Utrera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
71%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
35%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
13%
Utrera 1+ goals
68%
Utrera 2+ goals
32%
Utrera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
53%
Utrera (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Utrera attack 1.32 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sevilla III scores more
38%
level
28%
Utrera scores more
34%

Sevilla III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 2–1 Utrera

Sevilla III beat Utrera 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Prado de San Sebastián in Sevilla.