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Sevilla III vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
1/22/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 21Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sevilla III53%
×Draw25%
Los Barrios22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.61
Los Barrios
0.93

Sevilla III creates 73% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
78%
Sevilla III or Los Barrios
75%
Draw or Los Barrios
47%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
28%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
80%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
48%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
22%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
61%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
24%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
71%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sevilla III scores more
53%
level
25%
Los Barrios scores more
22%

Sevilla III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevilla III vs Los Barrios

Sevilla III and Los Barrios drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.