Sevilla III 0–2 Gerena: Result & Stats

Sevilla III

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gerena

1/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Sevilla III41%

×Draw28%

Gerena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla IIIExpected goals in this matchGerena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.04

Sevilla III

1.24

Gerena

1.04

Sevilla III creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

1.22

creates per match

1.11

0.96

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sevilla III

1.22

Gerena

1.11

allows per match

Sevilla III

0.96

Gerena

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par

Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Gerena →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw

69%

Sevilla III or Gerena

72%

Draw or Gerena

59%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+

18%

Gerena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals

71%

Sevilla III 2+ goals

35%

Sevilla III 3+ goals

13%

Gerena 1+ goals

65%

Gerena 2+ goals

28%

Gerena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)

57%

Gerena (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Gerena attack 1.11 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sevilla III scores more

41%

level

28%

Gerena scores more

31%

Sevilla III at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff