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Sevilla III vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
4/26/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sevilla III38%
×Draw26%
Dos Hermanas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.38
Dos Hermanas
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
64%
Sevilla III or Dos Hermanas
74%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
62%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
17%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
75%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
40%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
16%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
74%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
39%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
51%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sevilla III scores more
38%
level
26%
Dos Hermanas scores more
36%

Sevilla III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevilla III 1 – 1 Dos Hermanas

Sevilla III and Dos Hermanas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4 in Sevilla.