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Sevilla III vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Sevilla III
Sevilla III
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coria CF
Coria CF
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 5Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sevilla III48%
×Draw27%
Coria CF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla III
1.44
Coria CF
0.95

Sevilla III creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sevilla III
1.22
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Sevilla III
0.96
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw
75%
Sevilla III or Coria CF
73%
Draw or Coria CF
52%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+
24%
Coria CF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals
76%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
42%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
18%
Coria CF 1+ goals
61%
Coria CF 2+ goals
25%
Coria CF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)
66%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sevilla III scores more
48%
level
27%
Coria CF scores more
25%

Sevilla III at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sevilla
Coria
Joaquín Hidalgo
Manager: Joaquín Hidalgo
David Feito
Manager: David Feito

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Sevilla III 0–0 Coria CF

Sevilla III and Coria CF drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4 in Sevilla.