Sevilla III 1–2 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Sevilla III

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Córdoba II

9/21/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Sevilla III42%

×Draw28%

Córdoba II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla IIIExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

Sevilla III

1.28

Córdoba II

1.04

Sevilla III creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.22

creates per match

1.13

0.96

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sevilla III

1.22

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Sevilla III

0.96

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla III+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla III ↓

Córdoba II →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sevilla III or draw

70%

Sevilla III or Córdoba II

72%

Draw or Córdoba II

58%

Winning margin

Sevilla III wins by 2+

19%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sevilla III 1+ goals

72%

Sevilla III 2+ goals

37%

Sevilla III 3+ goals

14%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

65%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

28%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sevilla III (draw refunded)

58%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sevilla III at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 110 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla III attack 1.22 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Sevilla III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sevilla III scores more

42%

level

28%

Córdoba II scores more

30%

Sevilla III at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sevilla III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevilla III vs Córdoba II

Córdoba II beat Sevilla III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Ramón Cisneros - Campo 4 in Sevilla.

Sevilla III vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sevilla III vs Córdoba II