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Sevilla Atletico vs Yeclano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Yeclano
Yeclano
11/10/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sevilla Atletico36%
×Draw32%
Yeclano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla Atletico
0.97
Yeclano
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico
1.05
Yeclano
0.84

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico
0.96
Yeclano
0.89

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par
Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Yeclano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw
68%
Sevilla Atletico or Yeclano
68%
Draw or Yeclano
64%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
13%
Yeclano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
62%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
25%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
7%
Yeclano 1+ goals
59%
Yeclano 2+ goals
23%
Yeclano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
53%
Yeclano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Yeclano away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Yeclano attack 0.84 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more
36%
level
32%
Yeclano scores more
32%

Sevilla Atletico at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sevilla Atletico 1–4 Yeclano

Yeclano beat Sevilla Atletico 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.