Sevilla Atletico vs San Fernando CD — League #438 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Sevilla Atletico39%
San Fernando CD25%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sevilla Atletico creates 35% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under80
- Over20
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No72
- Yes28
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sevilla Atletico ↓
Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches
San Fernando CD away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sevilla Atletico attack 1.43 + San Fernando CD defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.88
San Fernando CD attack 0.00 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Sevilla Atletico at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Sevilla Atletico host San Fernando CD on Sunday, 23 February 2020 at 10:30. The match is part of the League #438 2026/2027 season.
League #438: Sevilla Atletico 1–0 San Fernando CD
Sevilla Atletico beat San Fernando CD 1-0 in League #438 on February 23, 2020.
Goals: José Lara (66').
The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.