Sevilla Atletico 0–1 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Sevilla Atletico

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia

3/29/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Jesus Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sevilla Atletico33%

×Draw30%

Real Murcia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla AtleticoExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.07

Sevilla Atletico

1.01

Real Murcia

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

1.18

0.96

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico

1.05

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico

0.96

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw

64%

Sevilla Atletico or Real Murcia

70%

Draw or Real Murcia

67%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

13%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

64%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

27%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

8%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

66%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

29%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

48%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more

33%

level

30%

Real Murcia scores more

36%

Real Murcia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sevilla Atletico 0–1 Real Murcia

Real Murcia beat Sevilla Atletico 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Jesus Navas in Sevilla.

Sevilla Atletico vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sevilla Atletico 0–1 Real Murcia