Sevilla Atletico 1–1 Atlético Baleares

Sevilla Atletico

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Baleares

Lulo Dasilva 2'

Canario 11'

3/27/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sevilla Atletico44%

×Draw29%

Atlético Baleares27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sevilla AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.89

Sevilla Atletico

1.23

Atlético Baleares

0.89

Sevilla Atletico creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

0.82

0.96

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico

1.05

Atlético Baleares

0.82

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico

0.96

Atlético Baleares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw

73%

Sevilla Atletico or Atlético Baleares

71%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

56%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+

20%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals

71%

Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals

35%

Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals

13%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)

62%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more

44%

level

29%

Atlético Baleares scores more

27%

Sevilla Atletico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

11'

16'

23'

26'

28'

31'

39'

I. Salguero Lobato

43'

C. Silva

63'

D. Petcoff← Alfonso Martín

63'

Manel Martínez← Dioni

63'

Víctor Pastrana← José Fran

64'

Antonio Zarzana← Ismael Salguero

69'

G. Zabarte

76'

Cristóbal Moreno← Nacho Quintana

78'

Orfila← Zabarte

81'

P. Orfila

83'

Tòfol Montiel← Vinícius Tanque

86'

M. Drammeh← Luismi Cruz

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

90+5'

Sevilla

Atlético

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Alejandro Acejo

64'▲Antonio Zarzana←▼Ismael Salguero

76'▲Cristóbal Moreno←▼Nacho Quintana

86'▲M. Drammeh←▼Luismi Cruz

Sevilla Atletico substitutes

ZarzanaMorenoDrammehGonzálezPastorSantistebanArmenterosAsparKibamba

Manager: Eloy Jiménez

63'▲D. Petcoff←▼Alfonso Martín

63'▲Manel Martínez←▼Dioni

63'▲Víctor Pastrana←▼José Fran

78'▲Orfila←▼Zabarte

83'▲Tòfol Montiel←▼Vinícius Tanque

Atlético Baleares substitutes

PetcoffMartínezPastranaOrfilaMontielAbadVilarrasaJaumeFerroneGinard