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Sevilla Atletico vs Alcoyano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcoyano
Alcoyano
3/15/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Jesús Navas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sevilla Atletico40%
×Draw30%
Alcoyano30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevilla Atletico
1.13
Alcoyano
0.94

Sevilla Atletico creates 20% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sevilla Atletico
1.05
Alcoyano
0.91

allows per match

Sevilla Atletico
0.96
Alcoyano
1.21

finishing

Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par
Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevilla Atletico ↓

Alcoyano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sevilla Atletico or draw
70%
Sevilla Atletico or Alcoyano
70%
Draw or Alcoyano
60%

Winning margin

Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
17%
Alcoyano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
68%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
31%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
11%
Alcoyano 1+ goals
61%
Alcoyano 2+ goals
24%
Alcoyano 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
57%
Alcoyano (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevilla Atletico at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevilla Atletico attack 1.05 + Alcoyano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alcoyano attack 0.91 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sevilla Atletico scores more
40%
level
30%
Alcoyano scores more
30%

Sevilla Atletico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Sevilla Atletico 3–0 Alcoyano

Sevilla Atletico beat Alcoyano 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jesús Navas in Sevilla.