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Seven Dreams vs Tambankulu Callies — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
1 – 0
Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
5/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams29%
×Draw28%
Tambankulu Callies44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
1.03
Tambankulu Callies
1.33

Tambankulu Callies creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 42 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Tambankulu Callies
0.74

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Tambankulu Callies
1.52

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Tambankulu Callies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
56%
Seven Dreams or Tambankulu Callies
72%
Draw or Tambankulu Callies
71%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
11%
Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
64%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
28%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
9%
Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
74%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
38%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
40%
Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Tambankulu Callies away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tambankulu Callies attack 0.74 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
29%
level
28%
Tambankulu Callies scores more
44%

Tambankulu Callies at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seven Dreams vs Tambankulu Callies

Seven Dreams beat Tambankulu Callies 1-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.