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Seven Dreams vs Nsingizini Hotspurs — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
2 – 2
Nsingizini Hotspurs
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Mayaluka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams13%
×Draw24%
Nsingizini Hotspurs62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
0.60
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.63

Nsingizini Hotspurs creates 172% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 54 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Nsingizini Hotspurs
1.33

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Nsingizini Hotspurs
0.67

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Nsingizini Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Nsingizini Hotspurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–118%
0–214%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
38%
Seven Dreams or Nsingizini Hotspurs
76%
Draw or Nsingizini Hotspurs
87%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
3%
Nsingizini Hotspurs wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
45%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
12%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
2%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 1+ goals
80%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 2+ goals
48%
Nsingizini Hotspurs 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
18%
Nsingizini Hotspurs (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Nsingizini Hotspurs away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Nsingizini Hotspurs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Nsingizini Hotspurs attack 1.33 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
13%
level
24%
Nsingizini Hotspurs scores more
62%

Nsingizini Hotspurs at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nsingizini Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Seven Dreams 2–2 Nsingizini Hotspurs

Seven Dreams and Nsingizini Hotspurs drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Mayaluka Stadium in Mayaluka.