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Seven Dreams vs Highlanders — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
0 – 2
Highlanders
Highlanders
1/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams17%
×Draw25%
Highlanders58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
0.73
Highlanders
1.60

Highlanders creates 119% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Highlanders
1.29

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Highlanders
0.92

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Highlanders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
42%
Seven Dreams or Highlanders
75%
Draw or Highlanders
83%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
5%
Highlanders wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
52%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
17%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
4%
Highlanders 1+ goals
80%
Highlanders 2+ goals
47%
Highlanders 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
23%
Highlanders (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Highlanders away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Highlanders defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.73

Highlanders attack 1.29 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
17%
level
25%
Highlanders scores more
58%

Highlanders at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Highlanders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Seven Dreams 0–2 Highlanders

Highlanders beat Seven Dreams 2-0 in Premier League on January 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kalanga Stadium in Kalanga.