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Seven Dreams vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Seven Dreams
Seven Dreams
FT
1 – 1
Denver
Denver
11/29/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Seven Dreams23%
×Draw28%
Denver50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seven Dreams
0.84
Denver
1.39

Denver creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

creates per match

Seven Dreams
0.54
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Seven Dreams
1.92
Denver
1.15

finishing

Seven Dreams+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seven Dreams ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Seven Dreams or draw
50%
Seven Dreams or Denver
72%
Draw or Denver
77%

Winning margin

Seven Dreams wins by 2+
7%
Denver wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Seven Dreams 1+ goals
57%
Seven Dreams 2+ goals
21%
Seven Dreams 3+ goals
5%
Denver 1+ goals
75%
Denver 2+ goals
40%
Denver 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Seven Dreams (draw refunded)
31%
Denver (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seven Dreams at home — creates 0.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seven Dreams attack 0.54 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.84

Denver attack 0.85 + Seven Dreams defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Seven Dreams scores more
23%
level
28%
Denver scores more
50%

Denver at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Seven Dreams 1–1 Denver

Seven Dreams and Denver drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2022.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.