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Sevastopol vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sevastopol
Sevastopol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
5/31/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11SKS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sevastopol49%
×Draw30%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevastopol
1.25
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.71

Sevastopol creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sevastopol
1.37
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Sevastopol
0.61
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw
79%
Sevastopol or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
70%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
51%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+
23%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals
71%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
36%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
13%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
51%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
16%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)
70%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sevastopol scores more
49%
level
30%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
21%

Sevastopol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevastopol vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Sevastopol and Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at SKS Arena in Sevastopol.