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Sevastopol vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sevastopol
Sevastopol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
8/10/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20SKS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sevastopol46%
×Draw28%
Spartak Nalchik26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevastopol
1.35
Spartak Nalchik
0.93

Sevastopol creates 45% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sevastopol
1.37
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Sevastopol
0.61
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw
74%
Sevastopol or Spartak Nalchik
72%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
54%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+
22%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals
74%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
39%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
15%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
61%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
24%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)
64%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sevastopol scores more
46%
level
28%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
26%

Sevastopol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevastopol vs Spartak Nalchik

Sevastopol beat Spartak Nalchik 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at SKS Arena in Sevastopol.