Sevastopol 2–0 Forte Taganrog: Result & Stats

Sevastopol

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Forte Taganrog

10/5/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28SKS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sevastopol39%

×Draw28%

Forte Taganrog33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SevastopolExpected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Sevastopol

1.25

Forte Taganrog

1.11

Sevastopol creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

1.37

creates per match

1.61

0.61

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Sevastopol

1.37

Forte Taganrog

1.61

allows per match

Sevastopol

0.61

Forte Taganrog

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw

67%

Sevastopol or Forte Taganrog

72%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

61%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+

17%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals

71%

Sevastopol 2+ goals

36%

Sevastopol 3+ goals

13%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

67%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

30%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)

55%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sevastopol scores more

39%

level

28%

Forte Taganrog scores more

33%

Sevastopol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff