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Sevan vs Torpedo Yerevan — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
CANC
14:00
Torpedo Yerevan
Torpedo Yerevan
7/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sevan74%
×Draw14%
Torpedo Yerevan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
3.04
Torpedo Yerevan
1.17

Sevan creates 160% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Torpedo Yerevan
1.29

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Torpedo Yerevan
3.50

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
88%
Sevan or Torpedo Yerevan
86%
Draw or Torpedo Yerevan
26%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
54%
Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
95%
Sevan 2+ goals
80%
Sevan 3+ goals
57%
Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals
33%
Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
86%
Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.04

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sevan scores more
74%
level
14%
Torpedo Yerevan scores more
12%

Sevan at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevan vs Torpedo Yerevan — Match Preview

Sevan face Torpedo Yerevan on July 9, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sevan host Torpedo Yerevan at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.