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Sevan vs Pyunik Yerevan — Premier League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
CANC
10:00
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
12/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Nairi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sevan41%
×Draw28%
Pyunik Yerevan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
1.26
Pyunik Yerevan
1.04

Sevan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 107 away

creates per match

Sevan
1.67
Pyunik Yerevan
1.75

allows per match

Sevan
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan
0.85

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
69%
Sevan or Pyunik Yerevan
72%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
59%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
18%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
72%
Sevan 2+ goals
36%
Sevan 3+ goals
13%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
65%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
28%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
58%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 1.67 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.75 + Sevan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sevan scores more
41%
level
28%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
31%

Sevan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sevan vs Pyunik Yerevan — Match Preview

Sevan face Pyunik Yerevan on December 3, 2021 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sevan host Pyunik Yerevan at Stadion Nairi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.