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Sevan vs Pyunik II — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
5 – 2
Pyunik II
Pyunik II
6/8/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sevan62%
×Draw19%
Pyunik II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.38
Pyunik II
1.25

Sevan creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Pyunik II
1.46

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Pyunik II
2.16

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Pyunik II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Pyunik II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
81%
Sevan or Pyunik II
81%
Draw or Pyunik II
38%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
40%
Pyunik II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
91%
Sevan 2+ goals
68%
Sevan 3+ goals
42%
Pyunik II 1+ goals
71%
Pyunik II 2+ goals
36%
Pyunik II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
77%
Pyunik II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Pyunik II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Pyunik II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.38

Pyunik II attack 1.46 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sevan scores more
62%
level
19%
Pyunik II scores more
19%

Sevan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sevan 5–2 Pyunik II

Sevan beat Pyunik II 5-2 in First League on June 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.