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Sevan vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
2 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
10/6/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sevan37%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
1.87
Lokomotiv
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
58%
Sevan or Lokomotiv
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv
63%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
19%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
85%
Sevan 2+ goals
56%
Sevan 3+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
46%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sevan scores more
37%
level
21%
Lokomotiv scores more
42%

Lokomotiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevan vs Lokomotiv

Sevan and Lokomotiv drew 2-2 in First League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.