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Sevan vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
FT
0 – 3
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
2/29/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sevan77%
×Draw13%
Ani Yerevan10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
3.26
Ani Yerevan
1.13

Sevan creates 188% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
90%
Sevan or Ani Yerevan
87%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
23%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
59%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
96%
Sevan 2+ goals
83%
Sevan 3+ goals
61%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
68%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
31%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
89%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.26

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Sevan scores more
77%
level
13%
Ani Yerevan scores more
10%

Sevan at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sevan vs Ani Yerevan

Ani Yerevan beat Sevan 3-0 in First League on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.