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Sevan vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Sevan
Sevan
CANC
09:00
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
3/1/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sevan66%
×Draw17%
Alashkert II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevan
2.58
Alashkert II
1.21

Sevan creates 113% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sevan
2.59
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Sevan
1.04
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Sevan+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevan ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sevan or draw
84%
Sevan or Alashkert II
83%
Draw or Alashkert II
34%

Winning margin

Sevan wins by 2+
45%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sevan 1+ goals
92%
Sevan 2+ goals
72%
Sevan 3+ goals
47%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
70%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
34%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sevan (draw refunded)
80%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevan at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevan attack 2.59 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.58

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Sevan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sevan scores more
66%
level
17%
Alashkert II scores more
16%

Sevan at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sevan host Alashkert II

March 1, 2021: Sevan take on Alashkert II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sevan host Alashkert II at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.