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Sète vs Rodez — Coupe de France 2018

Sète
Sète
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rodez
Rodez
12/9/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade Louis-Michel (Sète)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sète31%
×Draw26%
Rodez43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sète
1.18
Rodez
1.43

Rodez creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sète
1.00
Rodez
2.53

allows per match

Sète
0.33
Rodez
1.35

finishing

Sète+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sète ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sète or draw
57%
Sète or Rodez
74%
Draw or Rodez
69%

Winning margin

Sète wins by 2+
13%
Rodez wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sète 1+ goals
69%
Sète 2+ goals
33%
Sète 3+ goals
12%
Rodez 1+ goals
76%
Rodez 2+ goals
42%
Rodez 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sète (draw refunded)
42%
Rodez (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sète at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Rodez away — creates 2.53, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sète attack 1.00 + Rodez defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rodez attack 2.53 + Sète defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sète scores more
31%
level
26%
Rodez scores more
43%

Rodez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Sète 2–0 Rodez

Sète beat Rodez 2-0 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Louis-Michel (Sète).