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Sète vs Lille — Coupe de France 2018

Sète
Sète
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lille
Lille
1/22/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 16th FinalsStade Louis-Michel (Sète)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sète37%
×Draw31%
Lille32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sète
1.04
Lille
0.94

Sète creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sète
1.00
Lille
1.54

allows per match

Sète
0.33
Lille
1.08

finishing

Sète+0.00on par
Lille+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sète ↓

Lille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sète or draw
68%
Sète or Lille
69%
Draw or Lille
63%

Winning margin

Sète wins by 2+
15%
Lille wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sète 1+ goals
65%
Sète 2+ goals
28%
Sète 3+ goals
9%
Lille 1+ goals
61%
Lille 2+ goals
24%
Lille 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sète (draw refunded)
54%
Lille (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sète at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Lille away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sète attack 1.00 + Lille defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lille attack 1.54 + Sète defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sète scores more
37%
level
31%
Lille scores more
32%

Sète at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sète will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Sète 0–1 Lille

Lille beat Sète 1-0 in Coupe de France on January 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Louis-Michel (Sète).