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Sete de Setembro vs Sao Domingos AL — Alagoano - 2 2024

Sete de Setembro
Sete de Setembro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
Unknown 77', 64', 35'
5/2/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sete de Setembro89%
×Draw8%
Sao Domingos AL3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sete de Setembro
3.19
Sao Domingos AL
0.44

Sete de Setembro creates 625% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sete de Setembro
2.75
Sao Domingos AL
0.13

allows per match

Sete de Setembro
0.75
Sao Domingos AL
3.63

finishing

Sete de Setembro+0.00on par
Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sete de Setembro ↓

Sao Domingos AL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–17%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sete de Setembro or draw
97%
Sete de Setembro or Sao Domingos AL
92%
Draw or Sao Domingos AL
11%

Winning margin

Sete de Setembro wins by 2+
72%
Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Sete de Setembro 1+ goals
96%
Sete de Setembro 2+ goals
82%
Sete de Setembro 3+ goals
60%
Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
36%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
7%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sete de Setembro (draw refunded)
97%
Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sete de Setembro at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Sao Domingos AL away — creates 0.13, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sete de Setembro attack 2.75 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 3.19

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.13 + Sete de Setembro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Sete de Setembro scores more
89%
level
8%
Sao Domingos AL scores more
3%

Sete de Setembro at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Sete de Setembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
64'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sete de Setembro vs Sao Domingos AL

Sete de Setembro beat Sao Domingos AL 3-0 in Alagoano - 2 on May 2, 2026.

Goals: ? (35', 64', 77').