Sesvete 0–3 Vukovar: Result & Stats | First NL

Sesvete

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Vukovar

5/23/2025

First NL · Round 32Stadion sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sesvete34%

×Draw27%

Vukovar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SesveteExpected goals in this matchVukovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.31

Sesvete

1.20

Vukovar

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 48 away

1.57

creates per match

1.48

1.15

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Sesvete

1.57

Vukovar

1.48

allows per match

Sesvete

1.15

Vukovar

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par

Vukovar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Vukovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw

61%

Sesvete or Vukovar

73%

Draw or Vukovar

66%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+

14%

Vukovar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals

70%

Sesvete 2+ goals

34%

Sesvete 3+ goals

12%

Vukovar 1+ goals

73%

Vukovar 2+ goals

38%

Vukovar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)

46%

Vukovar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 105 matches

Vukovar away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.83 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.57 + Vukovar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vukovar attack 1.48 + Sesvete defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sesvete scores more

34%

level

27%

Vukovar scores more

39%

Vukovar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff