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Sesvete vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sibenik
Sibenik
9/23/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 7Stadion Sesvetska Dolina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sesvete36%
×Draw28%
Sibenik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
1.21
Sibenik
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sesvete
1.57
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Sesvete
1.15
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
64%
Sesvete or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
64%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
15%
Sibenik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
70%
Sesvete 2+ goals
34%
Sesvete 3+ goals
12%
Sibenik 1+ goals
70%
Sibenik 2+ goals
34%
Sibenik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
50%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 105 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.57 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Sesvete defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sesvete scores more
36%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
36%

Sesvete at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Sesvete 1–0 Sibenik

Sesvete beat Sibenik 1-0 in First NL on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sesvetska Dolina in Sesvete.