Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sesvete vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Marsonia
Marsonia
T. Barisic 80'
M. Guja 77', 40' (pen), 17'
J. Zorica 74', 15'
I. Abramovic 5'
S. Mahmutovic 28'
3/11/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 18Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sesvete67%
×Draw18%
Marsonia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
2.48
Marsonia
1.11

Sesvete creates 123% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sesvete
2.60
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

Sesvete
0.87
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
85%
Sesvete or Marsonia
82%
Draw or Marsonia
33%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
45%
Marsonia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
92%
Sesvete 2+ goals
70%
Sesvete 3+ goals
44%
Marsonia 1+ goals
67%
Marsonia 2+ goals
30%
Marsonia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
81%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 2.60 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.48

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Sesvete defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sesvete scores more
67%
level
18%
Marsonia scores more
15%

Sesvete at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
I. Abramovic
15'
J. Zorica
17'
M. Guja
28'
S. Mahmutovic
40'
M. GujaPenalty
74'
J. Zorica
77'
M. Guja
80'
T. Barisic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sesvete vs Marsonia

Sesvete beat Marsonia 7-1 in Second NL on March 11, 2023.

Goals: I. Abramovic (5'), J. Zorica (15', 74'), M. Guja (17', 40' pen, 77'), S. Mahmutovic (28'), T. Barisic (80').

The match was played at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik in Sesvete.