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Sesvete vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
J. Zorica 88'
M. Topic 28' (pen)
I. Abramovic 21', 16'
F. Sverko 90'
10/14/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 9Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sesvete74%
×Draw15%
Jadran Poreč11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
2.67
Jadran Poreč
0.94

Sesvete creates 184% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sesvete
2.60
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Sesvete
0.87
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
89%
Sesvete or Jadran Poreč
85%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
26%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
52%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
93%
Sesvete 2+ goals
74%
Sesvete 3+ goals
49%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
61%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
24%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
87%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 2.60 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.67

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Sesvete defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sesvete scores more
74%
level
15%
Jadran Poreč scores more
11%

Sesvete at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
I. Abramovic
21'
I. Abramovic
28'
M. TopicPenalty
88'
J. Zorica
90'
F. Sverko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Sesvete 4–1 Jadran Poreč

Sesvete beat Jadran Poreč 4-1 in Second NL on October 14, 2022.

Goals: I. Abramovic (16', 21'), M. Topic (28' pen), J. Zorica (88'), F. Sverko (90').

The match was played at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik in Sesvete.