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Sesvete vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
9/18/2021First NLFirst NL · Round 6Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sesvete44%
×Draw26%
Inter Zapresic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
1.46
Inter Zapresic
1.17

Sesvete creates 25% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sesvete
1.57
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Sesvete
1.15
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
70%
Sesvete or Inter Zapresic
74%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
56%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
21%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
77%
Sesvete 2+ goals
43%
Sesvete 3+ goals
18%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
69%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
33%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
59%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 105 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.57 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Sesvete defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sesvete scores more
44%
level
26%
Inter Zapresic scores more
30%

Sesvete at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sesvete vs Inter Zapresic

Inter Zapresic beat Sesvete 2-1 in First NL on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik in Sesvete.