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Sesvete vs HNK Hajduk Split II — First NL 2018

Sesvete
Sesvete
CANC
00:00
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
4/24/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 26Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sesvete45%
×Draw25%
HNK Hajduk Split II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
1.57
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.25

Sesvete creates 26% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sesvete
1.57
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.36

allows per match

Sesvete
1.15
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.57

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
70%
Sesvete or HNK Hajduk Split II
75%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
55%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
23%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
79%
Sesvete 2+ goals
46%
Sesvete 3+ goals
21%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
71%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
36%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
60%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 105 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 1.57 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.36 + Sesvete defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sesvete scores more
45%
level
25%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
30%

Sesvete at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sesvete vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Match Preview

Sesvete face HNK Hajduk Split II on April 24, 2020 in this First NL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sesvete host HNK Hajduk Split II at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.