Sesvete vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018
First NL · Round 27Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 105+ matches
Sesvete51%
Croatia Zmijavci24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sesvete creates 59% more chances
Season form · 105 home / 109 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sesvete ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sesvete at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.15 · 105 matches
Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sesvete attack 1.57 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62
Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Sesvete defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Sesvete at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
NK Varazdin
Sibenik
Dugopolje
NK Osijek II
HNK Hajduk Split IISesvete
Dinamo Zagreb II
NK Zadar
Kustosija
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Solin
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Lucko
Medjimurje CakovecIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sesvete host Croatia Zmijavci on Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:15. The match is part of the First NL 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Sesvete vs Croatia Zmijavci
Sesvete and Croatia Zmijavci drew 1-1 in First NL on April 18, 2026.