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Sesvete vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Sesvete
Sesvete
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
I. Abramovic 41'
M. Guja 30'
3/26/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 20Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sesvete70%
×Draw17%
Belišće13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sesvete
2.50
Belišće
0.97

Sesvete creates 158% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sesvete
2.60
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Sesvete
0.87
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Sesvete+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sesvete ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sesvete or draw
87%
Sesvete or Belišće
83%
Draw or Belišće
30%

Winning margin

Sesvete wins by 2+
48%
Belišće wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sesvete 1+ goals
92%
Sesvete 2+ goals
71%
Sesvete 3+ goals
45%
Belišće 1+ goals
62%
Belišće 2+ goals
25%
Belišće 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sesvete (draw refunded)
85%
Belišće (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sesvete at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sesvete attack 2.60 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Belišće attack 1.07 + Sesvete defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sesvete scores more
70%
level
17%
Belišće scores more
13%

Sesvete at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sesvete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
M. Guja
41'
I. Abramovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sesvete vs Belišće

Sesvete beat Belišće 2-0 in Second NL on March 26, 2023.

Goals: M. Guja (30'), I. Abramovic (41').

The match was played at Stadion Sv. Josip Radnik in Sesvete.