Sestri Levante 3–1 Sorrento: Result & Stats

Sestri Levante

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sorrento

6/11/2023

Serie D - Championship Round · Championship - FinalStadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sestri Levante57%

×Draw23%

Sorrento20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestri LevanteExpected goals in this matchSorrento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.00

Sestri Levante

1.83

Sorrento

1.00

Sestri Levante creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sestri Levante

2.00

Sorrento

1.33

allows per match

Sestri Levante

0.67

Sorrento

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestri Levante+0.00on par

Sorrento+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestri Levante ↓

Sorrento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sestri Levante or draw

80%

Sestri Levante or Sorrento

77%

Draw or Sorrento

43%

Winning margin

Sestri Levante wins by 2+

32%

Sorrento wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sestri Levante 1+ goals

84%

Sestri Levante 2+ goals

54%

Sestri Levante 3+ goals

28%

Sorrento 1+ goals

63%

Sorrento 2+ goals

26%

Sorrento 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sestri Levante (draw refunded)

74%

Sorrento (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestri Levante at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sorrento away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestri Levante attack 2.00 + Sorrento defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sorrento attack 1.33 + Sestri Levante defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sestri Levante scores more

57%

level

23%

Sorrento scores more

20%

Sestri Levante at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sestri Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff