Sestao River 3–0 Sabadell: Result & Stats

Sestao River

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

3/3/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Las Llanas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sestao River51%

×Draw25%

Sabadell24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sestao RiverExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.97

Sestao River

1.56

Sabadell

0.97

Sestao River creates 61% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

0.97

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Sestao River

0.97

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

Sestao River

1.00

Sabadell

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sestao River+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sestao River ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sestao River or draw

76%

Sestao River or Sabadell

75%

Draw or Sabadell

49%

Winning margin

Sestao River wins by 2+

26%

Sabadell wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sestao River 1+ goals

79%

Sestao River 2+ goals

46%

Sestao River 3+ goals

21%

Sabadell 1+ goals

62%

Sabadell 2+ goals

25%

Sabadell 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sestao River (draw refunded)

68%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sestao River at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sestao River attack 0.97 + Sabadell defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Sestao River defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sestao River scores more

51%

level

25%

Sabadell scores more

24%

Sestao River at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff